Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar paycheck hinges on Tesla conquering markets where Chinese rivals are pulling ahead.
On November 7, Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for the founder-CEO, provided the company’s market value increases by 525% to $8.5 trillion and it sells a total of 20 million cars by 2035. The package also demands the deployment of 1 million robotaxis and the delivery of 1 million humanoid robots.
To meet the 2035 vehicle sales goal, Tesla must sell 12 million cars in the next decade, having sold just 8 million in its entire 17-year history.
The ambitious 2035 goal comes at a time when Tesla is struggling to grow its core electric car business. The company posted its first annual sales drop in a decade last year, followed by its worst quarterly revenue decline since 2022 this year.
Tesla’s success may begin in the U.S., but it ends with China.”
While Tesla dominates the U.S., it has been losing market share in other fast-growing EV markets such as China and Europe. Meanwhile, Chinese companies, especially BYD, have aggressively expanded in these regions, as well as in Asia and the Middle East, where Tesla has barely broken ground. The company’s performance in these markets could play a major role in determining if Musk ever sees his trillion-dollar payout.
“These numbers are really bananas with some of them extremely challenging to achieve, depending on the fine print,” Tu Le, founder and managing director of Sino Auto Insights, a Detroit-based mobility intelligence and advisory firm, told Rest of World. “Shareholders are listening to analysts who don’t understand Tesla’s global footprint and their reliance on markets outside of the U.S.”
Tesla’s sales slumped in the U.S. and Europe over the past year as competition intensified, EV subsidies ended, and Musk’s politics alienated buyers. Chinese automakers already dominate emerging markets with local production and established supply chains.
Six of the top 10 global EV sellers were Chinese last year, with BYD dethroning Tesla in Europe. BYD sells passenger vehicles in 102 countries, compared with Tesla’s 35.
In Thailand, Southeast Asia’s largest auto market, BYD sold almost 22,000 vehicles in the first five months of 2025, while Tesla has no presence. BYD operates its biggest factory outside Asia in Brazil, where it controls 90% of the EV market, and has penetrated 10 Latin American markets compared with Tesla’s presence in Chile only.
In India, Vietnamese carmaker VinFast outsold Tesla 152 units to 109 by October’s end. VinFast started accepting preorders on July 15, the same day Tesla opened its first India showroom.
“The company’s growth has stalled outside the U.S., and it’s losing share in China and Europe, where competition is intensifying,” Bill Russo, founder and CEO of Shanghai-based advisory firm Automobility Limited, told Rest of World. “The shareholder vote reflects confidence in Musk’s long-term vision more than a reflection of achievable near-term metrics.”
The Austin, Texas-based Tesla has stuck to a capital-light export model with only three gigafactories in California, Shanghai, and Berlin. In comparison, Chinese EV firms have invested more than $143 billion across raw material procurement, component manufacturing, and vehicle assembly in multiple nations over the past decade.
“BYD and other Chinese players are winning because they localize production, supply chains, and distribution networks,” Russo said. “Unless Tesla changes its approach and commits to regional manufacturing, it will struggle to compete in these fast-growing emerging markets.”
Tesla was reportedly scouting locations for a $3 billion India plant in April 2024 but it is no longer interested, a minister said this June. Tesla announced a factory in Morocco, but only an office exists. Meanwhile, BYD is building factories across Southeast Asia and Latin America where Tesla has no manufacturing plans.
Tesla only needs to maintain existing market shares in the U.S. and China to reach 20 million cumulative sales within six years, according to Freedom Broker analyst Dmitriy Pozdnyakov. Current annual sales stand at about 1.8 million units.
“The U.S. EV market still has enormous room for expansion in terms of new vehicle sales,” he told Rest of World.
Tesla’s China-made deliveries rose by 2.8% from a year ago in September after two months of decline, boosted by the China-exclusive six-seater Model Y L launched in August. Yet all sectors Musk relies on for Tesla’s future valuation — AI, robotoaxis, and robots — face major Chinese competition.
“Tesla’s success, and hence Elon’s ability to achieve the board targets of his pay package, may begin in the U.S., but it ends with China,” Le said.
